The International Monetary Fund (IMF) points to contained growth, affected by lower external demand and the rising cost of energy. Ecuador will slow down, from 3.7% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026 and 2027; while Venezuela will rebound by 4% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, compared to 1.5% in 2025. Bolivia is expected to see a decline of -3.3% in 2026 after a fall of -1.2% in 2025; growth in Paraguay will ease slightly to 4.2% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, following the 6% advance of 2025; and Uruguay will grow by 1.8% in 2026 (the same as in 2025) and 2.6% in 2027. The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.3% in 2026, which is one-tenth less than in 2025, but it also improves—by one-tenth—the forecast made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January, when it made its previous projection. Thus, according to the IMF's outlook report released this Tuesday, the region's economy will advance more this year than in 2025, despite the high global uncertainty unleashed by the war undertaken by the United States and Israel against Iran, which will cause other major world regions to suffer a slowdown. For 2027, the body maintains that the region will grow by 2.7%, as it calculated in January, although compared to its forecast last October, it is one-tenth more. For Central America, it projects an advance of 3.7% in 2026, the same as in 2025, and 4% in 2027, driven by domestic consumption and remittances, and for the Caribbean of 5.7% in 2026 and 8.6% in 2027, compared to the 6.2% growth in 2025, with economies benefiting from the recovery in tourism but also exposed to external phenomena. The region as a whole remains conditioned by external factors such as the rising cost of raw materials, the tightening of financial conditions, and the deceleration of global demand, although with differentiated impacts among countries. In this sense, the IMF explains that energy-importing economies are the most vulnerable to these shocks, while raw material exporters can partially benefit. The IMF highlights that the current international environment has encouraged several countries in the region to accelerate integration agreements, such as the recent one reached between Mercosur and the European Union, and emphasizes that these pacts can strengthen trade ties and diversify exports. Brazil slows down, Mexico, on the contrary. Among the region's main economies, the IMF expects Brazil to slow down in 2026, with a growth of 1.9%, compared to 2.3% in 2025, and rebound to 2% in 2027, initially benefiting from its status as a net energy exporter, although later the lower global demand, the rising cost of inputs such as fertilizers, and more restrictive financial conditions will weigh. Mexico, for its part, will grow by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, after having recorded 0.6% in 2025, in an environment marked by fiscal consolidation, a restrictive monetary policy, and trade tensions, mainly with the United States, which limit investment and activity. Argentina, which grew by 4.4% in 2025, will moderate its advance to 3.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, although it will maintain one of the strongest performances among the region's large economies, driven by a macroeconomic stabilization process and reforms that, according to the IMF, improve confidence. Colombia will grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, after having advanced by 2.6% in 2025, in line with a pattern of moderate expansion conditioned by the external environment. Chile will record a growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, after the 2.3% advance in 2025, while Peru will do so by 2.8% in both years, after having grown by 3.4% in 2025.
