Less than three months before the upcoming presidential elections in Ecuador, a survey conducted by the polling firm Comunicaliza shows a statistical tie between the current president, Daniel Noboa, and the presidential candidate from correísmo, Luisa González.
According to the survey results, Noboa leads the voting preference with 27.5%, closely followed by González with 26.7%. The difference between both candidates is only 0.6 percentage points, within the margin of error of the poll, which is 1.51%.
In recent months, Noboa's vote intention has decreased by approximately six points, mainly due to the energy restrictions imposed by his administration to address an energy crisis, which has led to planned blackouts of up to fourteen hours daily. In contrast, preferences for González have increased from 20% to nearly 27% after her candidacy was confirmed.
Despite this tie, 19% of respondents declare themselves undecided, while 10.8% plan to vote blank or null. This survey also features Jan Topic in third place, whose candidacy was rejected by the Electoral Contentious Tribunal (TCE).
The poll included the projection of votes from Topic's supporters in case they cannot vote for him, showing that they would be divided equally between Noboa and González. The survey was conducted from November 8 to 12 among 4,196 people aged 16 and older, through online questionnaires, with a margin of error of 1.51% and a confidence level of 95%.
The elections in Ecuador will take place on Sunday, February 9, 2025, with a possible second round of presidential voting on Sunday, April 13, in case no candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes.
